An analysis of the demographic situation in the country was conducted for the first time in KR. This analysis was prepared by the National Institute for Strategic Studies of the KR (NISI KR) and the United Nations Population Fund in the KR (UNFPA). The documents provide an analytical overview of the current demographic situation and trends in the reproduction of the population of KR, and an assessment of the prospects for the dynamics of the population of the KR until the middle of the 21st century.
Interest in development of such report is related to the fact that the potential for economic development and social stability in the KR largely depends, if not mainly, on the relationship between population and resources. In this regards, changing the population, age structure, territorial location and migration activity are the most important factors of socio-economic development in the long-term period.
A group of national experts together with international expert A. Avdeev prepared the analysis.
The results of the forecast show that in the near future the population of the KR will increase in any case, except for non-demographic crashes. In particular, it is shown that, under different forecasting scenarios, the population of the KR can vary from 9.2 to 7.3 million people. At the same time, the KR will remain the most sparsely populated state in Central Asia and the differences in population between KR and immediate neighbors will only increase in the future.
The forecast for the population of the regions shows that in connection with the geographical peculiarities of the KR, in the next few years the population will be redistributed in favor of the city of Bishkek and its suburbs. In the medium variant, the official number of the population of Bishkek is expected to exceed 1 million in 2020. The population of Jalal-Abad and Osh oblasts will also increase.
It is noted that the most densely populated areas are also characterized by the largest population growth. In densely populated areas, the main farmland is also concentrated, which will decline as the population in these areas grows and this in turn will lead to problems of food security.
According to the National Statistical Committee of the KR, as of January 1, 2016, the population density is about 30 people per square kilometer, but if you take into account the peculiarities of the country's terrain, where 40% of the territory falls on high-altitude areas, more than 2500 meters above sea level, of which 6 % are superhigh mountains, then the average population density in the territory of comfortable living (elevations and low mountains with a height of less than 1500 meters, including water surfaces) will be about 85 people per square kilometer. If you exclude all mountains (above 750 meters above sea level), the population density will increase to 250 people per square kilometer, which is close to the density of Great Britain and slightly more than the density of the population of Germany (230 people per square kilometer) or Italy (200 people per square kilometer).
Least comfortable for living are Naryn and Issyk-Kul regions which are the largest in area, and at the same time have the highest-altitude, almost 2/3 of which are located at an altitude of more than 2,5 thousand meters above sea level. However, if you take into account that about 6 thousand square kilometers at an altitude of 1.6 thousand meters above sea level in the Issyk-Kul region occupies the water area of Lake Issyk-Kul, then the living space of this area is the smallest.
In the report, experts noted that according to forecasts, the main trend will be a steady increase in the proportion of older persons. By 2050, the age structure will move to the stage of demographic maturity, the proportion of the elderly will be 20%. In addition, the expert group predicts that the life expectancy of Kyrgyz people will gradually increase: for men by 2030 will increase to 69.8 years, for women - up to 77.2 years, by 2050 - respectively, to 73 and 80.2 years. The experts made the following conclusions:
- The institution of the family is kept in KR. The absolute majority of the adult population marries, and celibacy is not widespread.
- Since the beginning of the 2000s there has been an increase in the birth rate, which does not contradict to the ideas of the demographic transition.
- The country maintains a relatively low level of divorce (compared with the European Republics of the former USSR). This is, due to the influence of the peculiarities of the cultural traditions and the foundations of the family life in KR.
- There is a decrease in infant and child mortality, which is the main point of reducing the overall mortality rate and increasing life expectancy.
- The structure of the causes of death is changing: the share of causes of death due to exogenous factors (mainly respiratory diseases and infectious and parasitic diseases) decreases, the share of causes caused by endogenous factors (among adults, mainly due to diseases of the circulatory system, among children - immaturity and congenital malformations).
During the presentation, Ms. Akhmetova, Head of the Department of the Office of the President of the KR thanked the expert group on the demographic situation for this work and suggested that NISI and UNFPA could use this work for development of the demographic policy of the KR for a long-term period.